Guessing the winners

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

By Andrew Munz

With only a few days left until Sunday’s Oscar broadcast, the race seems to be getting more and more uncertain. A week ago almost every film critic and Oscar blogger was certain about who would win, and now as March 7 inches closer and closer, the certainty is beginning to diminish. 

I will bring to light the frontrunners in the main races, but not necessarily give you solid predictions. As I’ve said time again, no one knows everything. Not even me.
So dig through the Jackson Hole Daily and grab your Oscar ballot and let’s go over the big ones. Don’t forget to turn it in before Sunday!

So. Best Picture. With 10 nominees this year, it’s hard to be confident in a single film. I think it’s safe to say that District 9, The Blind Side and Up won’t have much chance against the others. Obviously Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are the films everyone’s talking about. Usually the SAG Ensemble award is a good precursor for the big win, and Basterds took that a few weeks ago. Avatar has strengths in many parts, but it’s not the most original story or the best written.  And The Hurt Locker is excellent, but so few people actually saw the film. I’d say it’s down to the latter two. Dare I say, “Flip a coin?”

Best Director is down to James Cameron and Katherine Bigelow for Avatar and The Hurt Locker, respectively. These ex-spouses have been supporting each other throughout the season, though James Cameron recently asked voters to give Bigelow the director award, and give Avatar the picture. If Bigelow wins, she would be the first female director to ever win this coveted statue. If Cameron wins, we could be seeing the Titanic sweep all over again.

Best Actor is tough for me, just because I thought Crazy Heart with Jeff Bridges, and A Single Man with Colin Firth were both so bloody excellent. And now Jeremy Renner is considered the dark horse for The Hurt Locker. Firth as a gay man who loses his long-term partner was the bright star in an already jaw-dropping film. This is Bridges’ fifth nomination, and he’s the favorite at the moment, but so was Mickey Rourke last year when he lost to Sean Penn.

This is tough, but not as tough as Best Actress. Here we have Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) and Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) going head to head in two mediocre movies. My dream win would be Carey Mulligan for An Education, but many say her award is just being nominated alongside Meryl Streep. (Though, when is Streep not nominated, these days?) Voters could go for their American sweetheart, Bullock, or they could reward Streep with her long-overdue third Oscar. But who’s to say Gabourey Sidibe won’t come from behind and win for Precious? It gives me a headache, and any way it sways, it’ll be a surprise.

I will be kind enough to give you two solid predictions, however. Christoph Waltz will likely win a Best Supporting Actor award for Inglourious Basterds and Mo’nique will win Supporting Actress for Precious. These two I’m pretty certain of, and I’ll be bummed if they don’t.

In reality, our thoughts about the best performances are irrelevant, because we have to predict what Hollywood would say. That’s why I find it so difficult.  Do I think The Hurt Locker was better than An Education? Heck no, but that’s just how it goes.  Maybe next year, there will be more justice. JHW

The Oscars begin, 7 p.m., Sunday on ABC.

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