20/20 Vision

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

By Ben Cannon

Jackson Hole, Wyo.-While “hindsight is always 20/20,” looking forward to the future is, of course, a much more difficult endeavor. So a few months ago, with the spirit of that statement in mind, we at Planet Jackson Hole came up with Jackson Hole 20/20, a contest asking local illustrators to create works projecting what the valley might look like around the year 2020.

The winning entry, printed on the cover of this issue, is valley resident Kelly Halpin’s take on a dystopian future in which mega-retailers and high-rise structures have overtaken the Town Square. Halpin said that she felt this scenario is not in the unforeseeable future, but perhaps has already arrived. The anthropomorphic figures wallowing in the blighted and ruined town park are, rather sardonically, portrayed as swine, representing an influx of “snobby people,” she said.
 
While there is a longstanding tradition of casting bleak, pessimistic scenarios for the future, most would probably say Jackson Hole is not yet a place that has gone to all hell.

But what might the valley really look like 10 or 15 years from now? Many people who have lived in the area over the last decade or two are quick to point out the rapidity of change that occurred during the last decade, especially the rise of upscale resorts, resort communities, and the commercial gentrification around downtown Jackson.
And while the revised Comprehensive Plan is intended to guide policy and steer growth over the next 10 or 15 years, it is only one piece of pie.

“The Comp Plan is a step in whatever direction we’re going,” said Jonathan Schechter, the local economist who directs the Charture Institute, which focuses on the impacts of growth and development on ecologically significant places. “But the problem is … it’s not black and white. The way the world changes is in incremental steps. We could have the Comp Plan and choose not to follow it. Subsequent generations could make decisions to mildly enforce [it] or to enforce it in a Draconian way. The reality is our future is being shaped everyday by small incremental steps. The hard work is that all of these steps are collectively going to have to be made. And we don’t know the outcome yet.”

Currently, Teton County has about 11,200 dwelling units and a year-round population about twice that. Additionally, there are about 6.5 million square feet of non-residential space, most of that commercial. If the entire county was built out as the valley is currently zoned, without another approved upzone, Teton County would have more than 18,000 dwelling units, with up to 8.4 million square feet of non-residential space. If two people spoke in each of those homes – a very conservative number – the valley would increase in population by over 50 percent. Using planned mixed use developments, or PMUDs, a combination of residential and commercial multi-use developments, nearly 12 million s.f. of non-residential space could be built.

With, at press time, a proposed emergency moratorium on upzones and large subdivisions expected to go before county commissioners for debate, it is anybody’s guess what might be approved to upzone in the next few years. But a potential moratorium will not mean putting the kibosh on more upzones. County commissioners have identified affordable housing as a necessity, a priority for Teton County to remain a viable community that can house a large percentage of its workforce, its “middle class” locally.

When asked what Jackson might resemble around the year 2020, or what should be considered when imagining that time, a number of respondents – planners, electives and citizen advocates – said traffic would be among the most vital issues.

County Commissioner Hank Phibbs said he envisioned a sophisticated public transportation system that would not only whisk commuters from neighboring Star Valley and Teton Valley, in Idaho, to town, but would also provide transportation within Teton County – to Yellowstone and Teton National Parks, to the top of Teton Pass for skiing, and with more stops and routes to incentivize ridership.

“You’ve got to think about those things,” Phibbs said. “By then we’ll have the ability to take electric buses. And you can’t rule out [other power sources] - wind and sun; you name it.”

Former town planner Brian Grubb, who advocates a “smart growth” in the valley that keeps density near existing community hubs, agreed that transportation is “our biggest issue.” But, he said, “The reality is smart growth only reduces the rate of increase in traffic, it doesn’t reduce traffic,” he said.

Grubb also said the valley’s START bus is already a world-class system to meet local public transportation needs and that “it’s unrealistic we will be able to solve out problems with a better transit system,” he said. “It would have to be out of this world.”
Grubb said his biggest concern is threats to community character which, as he sees, come by way of four-story buildings downtown and more dense development in the county. On a positive note, he said that the decline of second home owners
hip over the last decade has helped contribute to a healthier community feel.

In the wake of the recent housing bust nationwide, it seems Jackson Hole’s exorbitant real estate market had managed, for better or worse, to remain in a protective, insular bubble. Even nearby Teton Valley, Idaho, felt at least a leveling off, if not a real slump.
But, as Justin Adams, a Save Historic Jackson Hole board member pointed out, that is no reason to believe Teton County, of which it has been said “the billionaires are pushing out the millionaires,” is impervious to any sort of economic downturn, especially in a state increasingly dependent on its booming mineral revenue.

“The idea that our economy is bulletproof is nuts,” Adams said. “When we have a real recession it will go down.”
He advocates trying to maintain Jackson Hole – and Wyoming – like the Serengeti, one of the world’s last sprawling ecosystems.

But to do this, Adams said, “You have to keep the population as low as you can.”
There seems to be a move to balance development between town and county based on results from recent community polling, said Lesli Kunkle Ellis, a consultant with Clarion Associates, the firm aiding Jackson and Teton County in the Comprehensive Plan revisions. Over 900 people responded to the community survey online.

Historically the county has born the brunt of population and development.
“The community’s kind of split about growth,” Kunkle Ellis said. For the most part, there’s some support for redevelopment, a lot of support for making sure there are strong policies in favor of protecting the existing development.”

Ellis said development, particularly in town, might begin to follow more and more the principles of mixed-use planning and design. While those types of developments have detractors in critics like Justin Adams, the practice has gained a foothold in recent urban planning movements.

“I don’t know if urban is the right word for Jackson, but a vibrant town area with connectivity, vertically-integrated housing areas and is pedestrian-friendly,” Kunkle Ellis said.

While Wilson and Hoback are not likely to see dramatic new developments, she said, the “Y” intersection of Highway 22 and W. Broadway, in southwest Jackson, will likely see significant redevelopment.

The next rounds of Comprehensive Plan discussions, Kunkle Ellis said, should “drill into” the community feeling for downtown. That means deciding if four-story buildings off of the Town Square are something the community wants to consider. The new Center for the Arts and the town’s parking garage, both completed in the last year, were the first four-story structures in Jackson.

Commissioner Chairman Andy Schwartz, who owns a downtown retail shop, said that this is where much of the battle for the future will occur.

“A lot of this is going to come down to how we zone downtown,” he said. “What the zoning is, the more the ‘Town is Heart’ concept, and the more a market there will be for locals living there as opposed to just high-end tourist businesses.”

Schwartz explained that unless the community can create a more viable market for those who are not tourists or ultra wealthy, the transformation of Jackson Hole into a place fleetingly accessible to its community will continue.
“It’s pretty bleak,” he said.
by Henry Sweets

As Teton County grows, more people are becoming aware of the practical and economic sense of green practices.

A new project by the Yellowstone Business Partnership (YBP) seeks to establish a region-specific framework for sustainable building and development. This could set precedents, and expand infrastructure, for a style of building that some developers are already recognizing as a better, more economically feasible way of doing things.

Three years ago, developer Dave Taylor bought 17 acres at the base of Snow King Mountain. He proposed 44 townhomes on site and to build his affordable housing requirement off site. Neighbors from Pine Drive, and some elected officials, were unsure about developing the space that some assumed would always be forest.

Taylor ultimately decided to reduce the number of units to 27 townhomes, and to space them almost twice as far apart as originally submitted. The final plans also include 12 deed-restricted units to be built on site.

Taylor had attended workshops on sustainable development sponsored by the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce. He knew he could save money by recycling waste instead of paying for it to be hauled off to the dump. He also knew that the property value of one tree, or the cost of fixing a reckless rut made in the forest floor by a delivery driver, could amount to $2000-$3000 apiece.

He began to talk with the recycling center, and to do internet research on green building practices, and then decided to go for the U.S. Green Building Council’s (USGBC) LEED certification for the Pine Glades development.

“A lot of things we were going to do anyway, other things were just common sense … it made sense then to look closer into being LEED certified,” said Taylor.

Taylor said that he thinks the market value of LEED certified homes will be more significant in five years, but his real estate agents seem to feel the value is already quite significant; the potential LEED certification is the first thing mentioned in ads by Sotheby’s realty in the Jackson Hole Daily.

As well as vying to be the first LEED certified residential development in Wyoming, Pine Glades is one of three developments in Teton County that is a pilot project for a new green certification program initiated by the YBP, which acts like a chamber of commerce for the greater Yellowstone region. Taylor hopes to break ground on Pine Glades in a couple of weeks, while the Grand Targhee Resort expansion needs step by step approval and Teton Meadows Ranch still needs an upzone.

In 2005 the YBP and the Nature Conservancy interviewed  80 people “of different viewpoints” who were stakeholders in the greater Yellowstone region to better understand how to manage the inevitable development of the region, said Heather Burdette, Sustainability Programs Manager of the YBP.

The Greater Yellowstone Framework for Sustainability is a set of guidelines developed from those interviews. Official LEED certification is geared towards urban areas, weighing things like water and energy conservation, the use of environmentally friendly materials and the distance materials travel to the construction site.
“Our environment is so rural that we’ve faced some issues that other areas don’t have to consider,” said Burdette.

The Framework takes a more holistic view of a development, like its impact on neighbors, wildlife corridors and the community at large.
“We’re looking beyond physical buildings to examine how a project affects the natural and cultural values of the surrounding community and region,” stated Jan Brown, YBP director, in a press release.

Outdoor ethics and education, biodiversity, cultural and historical values, community vitality, transportation and connectivity are some of the categories that developers must take into consideration on their way to certification.

The pilot program will have three years until the YBP decides which entity will be the independent certifier. The USGBC could adopt this as a LEED certification program, or it might become an independent regional certification. Eleven projects across Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana are listed as pilots for the first region-specific framework for sustainable development in our country.

As the program expands, Burdette expects that more opportunities will come to our region that currently has a limited supply of green building materials. “As the demand grows the supply will come here,” she said.

The Teton County construction waste recycling program has expanded immensely in the last two or three years. Dane Buk, owner of Terra Firma Organics, now handles the bulk of construction waste in Teton County. He said that he is now able to re-invest organic matter into Teton County’s landscaping industry, whereas several years ago wood chips were either burned or shipped out of county, while mulch and soil products were imported.

Buk is one of many people who say that green practices make economic sense.
“The green bubble will explode if we just do what feels good,” Buk said. “This works because it works, and you can prove that it works. You can’t tell me that $4 a gallon diesel fuel and shipping our waste to a county that doesn’t even want it [makes sense.]”
Over the next few years, economic forces, common sense, and government decisions have a chance to revolutionize our impact on the environment.

Courtesy Kelly Halpin
Looking to the future of JH

PERMALINK:
20/20 Vision | Planet JH News Article: Cover Stories

Leave a Comment