Brokered convention?

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

By Joseph Schloss

Is the Republican Party headed for a brokered convention? The 2008 presidential primaries and caucuses are so close that there is a possibility of this happening. A brokered convention occurs when there is no clear cut majority winner among the presidential primary  hopefuls. This could be evident by close of business on Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

Brokered conventions are rare these days. The last Republican Party candidate selected by brokered convention was Thomas Dewey in 1948. By contrast, the last Democratic Party candidate selected by brokered convention was Adlai Stevenson in 1952. It has been 60 years since the Republican National Party has chosen its candidate in this manner. Consequently, there is no one around any longer who can explain exactly the rules and procedures for the conduct of a brokered convention. Looks like the Republican National Party is going to have to dust off their collective political history books and come up with a new set of guidelines.

In the old days, prior to the use of the primary and caucus system, brokered conventions were the norm. The term “brokered convention” comes from a time when a political convention was brokered through a series of ballots and political horse-trading. Often, this would take place in a local saloon or meeting hall. In the smoke-filled room, deals were struck. One candidate might promise to deliver a block of delegate votes in exchange for a vice presidential nomination. Another might be willing to do the same in exchange for a cabinet level appointment. After much wheeling and dealing, a presidential candidate would emerge as the choice of the convention. In today’s world of high tech advertising a brokered convention seems like an antiquated system of a bygone era.

Will frontrunners Mitt Romney or John McCain, or another, gather enough momentum to emerge as a clear-cut majority winner of 1191 delegate votes? There is still time for this to happen. The Florida primary will be telling and may propel one candidate to the forefront as we rapidly approach Super Tuesday when 24 states will have cast their votes. Thus far, in the primaries and caucuses, none of the individual state winners has been able to use their win to gather enough momentum to excel in the next state primary. This momentum is what normally would drive a candidate to succeed. The lack of continued momentum in this year’s selection process is perplexing and may ultimately lead to a brokered convention.

It seems to me that presidential candidates with few delegate votes have much to gain in a brokered convention. They could parlay their delegate votes into political concessions that could secure much coveted government positions. The key for a candidate with flagging delegate votes is to financially survive until the September Republican National Convention. If at that time a brokered convention occurs then he would be able to maximize his position by securing concessions that would not have been available if a clear-cut winner had emerged. Conversely, if candidates drop out along the way to the national convention due to lack of finances or a poor political showing then it increases the chances for a remaining candidate to secure the delegate votes needed for victory.

The Democrats are not immune from a brokered convention either. With Clinton, Obama and Edwards battling it out, they may be headed for a brokered convention as well. If Edwards stays in the race, despite his lower delegate votes, he could use those delegate votes to help secure a vice presidential nomination by throwing his support to either Clinton or Obama in a brokered convention.
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Brokered convention? | Planet JH News Article: Right Wing Local

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